A Year Ago, In Iowa With the Edwards'

What a difference a year makes. A year ago this weekend, I got on a plane with a couple of others from Georgia, and headed to Iowa to be part of John Edwards' Fighting for One America Iowa Bus Tour. John Edwards, who had never really stopped running for President since 2004, who never really left Iowa, was ahead in the polls there as we departed. Despite recent revelations, the trip remains one of the single coolest political things I have ever done, in part because of the people I met, from all over the country, who were committed not simply to John and Elizabeth, but to the populist message they carried, a message I hope will not fall victim to the mistakes of the messenger.

We trailed the campaign bus, attended events-large and small, on courthouse lawns, in union halls and at the State Fair. We also heard the other candidates in joint forums, including one of the early debates at Drake University. I met Chris Dodd in the bar of the Hotel Fort Des Moines one night and Hillary Clinton in the lobby the next morning. It was a very cool trip, but the memories now are bittersweet and have an entirely new frame.





At dinner, on the first night of the trip, Elizabeth read to us an excerpt from the new chapter of her book, Saving Graces. (The autographed copy of the paperback she gave us that night is still sitting on my foyer table.) John was there, too. He listened intently, never breaking eye contact with her as she read. She chose to read the section describing that when she was in the hospital, getting the news that there was a recurrence of the cancer, John proposed to her again right there in the hospital room-a real proposal. As a result, a real wedding, a reaffirmation of their vows, happened at their home earlier that summer. There was not a dry eye in the room when she finished reading, and it was then I decided that she must be made of steel. Even so, I had no idea of the pain she was actually carrying, and no idea the context and import of John's proposal-and her response. Now I know she's made of steel, but like all of us, has feet of clay.

I tell that story because the hardest part of this situation for me, and for many others I have spoken to, is reconciling Elizabeth's role. Many of us, not so secretly, like her more than him, supported him because she did and believed in him because she did. I don't know why she supported the campaign continuing, but I suspect it was because she believed in the issues they were putting forward. I do know that none of us can know what it was like to be in her shoes. The bottom line is that Elizabeth Edwards is still who she always was-strong, smart, determined and battle-tested, and we need her voice on the issues she cares so deeply about.

As much as I disagree with their decisions-her's, too-to run and continue to run for President, relying on this story never breaking, and never telling any of us who were the front line foot soldiers in their campaign, I completely get, and respect, Elizabeth's decision to try to heal her marriage, keep her family together and work toward forgiving her husband. I also think that absent the presidential campaign, her choice is none of our business. I work with couples every single day who are surviving affairs. Most people who are having an affair never thought they would do such a thing. So, if you're one of the folks tsking your tongue and pointing a finger, remember-you are not immune.

It's easy, in this 24-7 news, reality television world, to think of people in black and white terms-all good or all bad. The truth is, we're all a mixed bag, and really fine people-really talented, sincere, good people-sometimes make the most awful, tragic decisions, and everyone pays a price. As Edwards' friend Mudcat Saunders said, "He's a good boy. He just made a hell of a mistake." I suspect that's about right. Sometimes, the wounded are the best healers, and Elizabeth Edwards is a powerful messenger, especially regarding health care. Here's hoping that her voice is not a causality of his mistake. We need her in the public square.

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For My "Edwards" Friends

We vote Tuesday, and for us Edwards folks, it's time to move on, and I have. I've endorsed Barack Obama and will be voting for him on Tuesday. But, sometimes moving forward means doing some reflecting, and I've done that today. Volunteering for the Edwards campaign over the last year, I met some incredible people who worked shoulder to shoulder with me. Many are just genuinely fine folks who joined the short list of people in my life I can always count on to do what they say. John and Elizabeth were in Georgia numerous times, and some of us traveled to Iowa, New Hampshire and South Carolina to help out. I always seemed to have a camera in my hand and took hundreds of photographs. One of the most memorable moments in the campaign was when John Mellencamp played at the Des Moines Edwards rally on the night before the Iowa caucuses. Despite the cold, more than 3,000 people packed a dance hall in East Des Moines. I'll never forget those three thousand mostly working class folks singing with Mellencamp, "This is Our Country." I kept thinking, "if it's not, it ought to be, and that's why I'm here." So, here's my tribute to all those who worked so hard on this campaign. Some never stopped working after the 2004 race. Appropriately, set to Mellencamp, here's my thank you to all of you.

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Iowans Stand Up for Change

Congratulations to Obama! The big story out of Iowa tonight is that Iowans stood up for change-and in a big way. The turnout for the Democratic caucus here topped a quarter million, more than 100% greater than in 2004. Many who caucused were new voters, and many were young. A half to a third of that number turned out on the Republican side, and more than half of those caucusers identified themselves as "born again" or "evangelical," clearly contributing to Huckabee's victory. If those trends hold though the the general election, that bodes very well for Democrats.

Obama had an amazing night, frankly doing what I never thought he could do here, and John Edwards also did well, finishing ahead of Clinton. It's clear that the voters want change-now they have to look hard at Edwards and Obama and decide just what sort of change they really want. Not that I think Clinton is out of the race, but I do think she has to win in New Hampshire. We are staying at the same hotel as the Clinton campaign, and her party was here. I would describe the mood as somber. I wouldn't take anything for the time we spent here. It was an amazing experience watching democracy in action. Here are a few pictures:

Sunset in Earlham, Iowa

Edwards Won Madison County

A Metaphor for the Caucus In Earlham, Iowa

Edwards at Steelworkers' Union on Caucus Morning

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A Friday Funny, Huckabee Version

This is very funny, from TPM:

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Iowa Paper Endorses, Compares Edwards to JFK

Today, John Edwards scored. He got the endorsement of the Valley News Today. This is the first non-student newspaper endorsement of this cycle in Iowa. In making the endorsement, the editors said,

John Edwards is a family man who, if elected, will be the first president since John F. Kennedy to bring young children with him to the White House. And we think that’s a good thing. Each morning when he rises, he will have his children, Jack and Emma, to remind him how important each decision he makes really is to our future generations. Edwards isn’t afraid to speak out against the political machine that has corrupted our system for years and has pledged as a candidate to refuse contributions from Washington lobbyists – a personal decision that is an important first step towards true campaign finance reform. In an unusually strong field of contenders, Edwards is by far the least polarizing of the other top tier candidates and will clearly provide Democrats the best chance of defeating the Republicans next November.

I agree with all of that, in spades. This paper just articulated my top reasons for supporting Sen. Edwards. You can read the endorsement here.

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Clinton Slides in Iowa: New Poll

Today, Rasmussen is reporting results showing that Hillary Clinton's poll numbers in Iowa have dropped seven points in recent weeks, mirroring her six point drop in New Hampshire. Currently, 29% of respondents support Clinton, 25% support Edwards and 21% support Obama, making the race a statistical dead heat. Not surprisingly, Bill Richardson now finds himself in the double digits drawing support from 10% of those polled. Among those who say they are certain to caucus, the top three are tied, 26%, 26% and 26%. Fully half of those polled say they might change their mind before January, so the race is truly anyone's. Second choice support, important in caucuses, is also evenly split between the top three. Among the top three, Edwards is the best liked by caucus goers, with 84% reporting a favorable opinion of him, compared to 81% for Obama and 79% for Clinton. I bet congress wishes for those numbers!

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Edwards Within Striking Distance: Mike Miller

Things are heating up in Iowa! Guest post from Mike Miller:

Go, John, go!!! In the past two weeks, two highly respected polls (Zogby last week and now CBS/NY Times) have reported that Clinton's support is declining in Iowa and Edwards is steadily improving his numbers. According to the highly respected CBS/New York Times Iowa poll released yesterday, Clinton's lead in Iowa has all but evaporated in the past couple of weeks and John Edwards is in striking distance of the lead!

In fact, he may already be in the lead - Clinton's lead over Edwards is now well-within the statistical margin of error!

Here are the numbers:
Clinton 25%
Edwards 23%
Obama 22%

And a whopping 33% of her supporters reported that they "liked her with reservations."

Edwards's "favorables" with his supporters were also stronger than Clinton's were with hers. 71% of Edwards supporters reported that they "strongly favor" him. Only 66% of Clinton supporters reported that they "strongly favor" her.

Experience clearly divides the candidates: 8 in 10 say Clinton is "prepared for being president," 68% said Edwards is prepared for the job, but just over half think that Obama has not. However, Clinton is viewed by many likely caucus-goers as pandering and dishonest: 47% think Clinton says what she believes, but 48% think she only says what she thinks people want to hear. The CBS/NY Times poll notes that "Of the top three candidates, only Edwards is viewed as both being prepared for the job of President and as someone who says what he believes."

Overall, Edwards tops all candidates with the highest "favorable rating," with 73% of likely caucus-goers reporting that they view Edwards favorably. Also, the Clinton complaint that she's being unfairly attacked has gotten little traction, as 25% say she is not being attacked and 34% say that she is being attacked fairly.

I have previously reported on the importance of "second-choice" votes on caucus night. You will recall that candidates need at least 15% in a local caucus to be eligible for delegates. Supporters of candidates who do not receive 15% will then have the opportunity to support one of the remaining candidates. According to this poll, only Edwards, Clinton and Obama meet the 15% threshold. As I have oft stated, the "second choice" votes are critical to victory. Edwards is the winner there. Among likely caucus-goers who identify themselves as either Richardson, Bidden, Dodd, Kucinich or Gravel supporters, 30% chose Edwards as their second choice, 27% chose Obama as their second choice, and only 14% chose Clinton as their second choice.

Stay tuned. And don't miss the CNN debate tomorrow night - it's getting hot in Iowa.

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Heroes: Edwards Up on Air in Iowa

John Edwards is up on air in Iowa!!

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Iowa SEIU Set to Endorse Edwards

Today, John Edwards was endorsed by the environmental group, Friends of Earth, and multiple sources are reporting that, tomorrow, the Iowa chapter of SEIU, along with other state affiliates, will endorse him. This is great news for the Edwards' campaign, providing important "boots on the ground" and other resources in key early states.

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And This is a Problem, Why?

Today, Sen. Edwards made it clear that health care for everyone does not imply responsibility for no one. Today in Tipton, Iowa, he told a crowd that people would be expected to see their doctor for preventative health care. He said that if Americans choose to be in the health care system, they cannot choose to not see their doctor for twenty years. Regular checkups and a healthier lifestyles would drive down health costs in American. That makes sense, but, alas, the words had hardly left his lips before the rightwing bloggers started in. The same crew that preaches personal responsibility thinks expecting people to go to the doctor is just too much to ask. Okay, how about we compromise and let you drive your SUV to the doctor??

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That's Right

Here's what Edwards had to say today when he signed the pledge to not campaign in those states trying to break in line in front of Iowa, New Hampshire, Nevada and South Carolina

"I strongly encourage my fellow candidates to support this four state pledge. The Democratic Party is the party of ideas, not money; Main Street, not Wall Street; and real people, not Washington insiders, and signing this pledge reaffirms that.” John Edwards

Obama signed today, too. Hillary? Oh, Hillary???

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Wrapping Up a Road Trip

I'm back from Iowa, and you may have noticed that I stopped blogging in the middle of the Presidential forum on Saturday night (when my cellphone died.) Both Edwards and Clinton did very well at the packed forum. Edwards is clearly the favorite of labor in Iowa. Some estimate that nearly 4000 people attended, and they were on their feet for much of his speech. The surprise, for me, was Obama. He had a bad night at the forum-really fell flat and was heckled at the beginning of his speech. After that, and then being targeted at the beginning of the ABC debate on Sunday, he probably really did feel like he was riding bumper cars at the fair. Anyone can have a bad couple of days, so we'll see.

Predictions at this stage of the game are risky, but I believe that Edwards will win Iowa, and that will put him in an excellent position going into the other early primaries. His organization is that state is very strong. Clinton will also do well there. Obama? Unless what I saw this weekend was an aberration, I don't think Obama will be in the top three. It would not shock me to see Richardson begin to overtake him there in the polls.

That's it. Great trip. It was fascinating to be in a state where the question is not "will you vote for me" but instead, "will you caucus for me." To caucus means that the person goes out on a cold and often snowy night (probably Jan. 5th), spends an hour or so debating platform and then caucuses for their favorite candidate-and maybe for their second favorite candidate if their first choice does not reach a certain threshold % required to earn a delegate. (The contrast to us giving people a week to take five minutes to vote is pretty stark.) These are serious, informed voters. I kind of like this system. Why should it be easy?

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Clinton is About to Speak

Clinton says that what really made America great was the middle class. The American middle class is under assault. She's running for President because she wants to set big goals for this country. She wants universal health care within the first year. She wants to create five million Green collar jobs. She wants to appoint people who are pro-labor to the Department of Labor.

Cute analogy-she says Republicans' message is "you're on your own" and that stands for yo-yo. In other words, someone else is pulling the strings. We need to move from government by the few, for the few. Good job, warm reception.

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A Field of Dreams

This afternoon, we visited the place where the movie, Field of Dreams was filmed. Again, what an appropriate metaphor for the Iowa caucuses. Right now, I am at Presidential forum sponsored by Workers for a Better Iowa. I think that all of the Democratic candidates are slated to attend and speak, with the exception of Richardson.

The large room is packed with people of all ages. Beside me is an undecided voter who is very concerned about healthcare and Iraq. She just attended the funeral of a friend, a 22 year-old Marine who died in Iraq. She says there's no good answer for Iraq, but that we should respect our soldiers and their sacrifice. She's heard Obama before, and is now looking forward to hearing from the others. Like many in Iowa, she is "shopping" for the right candidate. Her number 1 criteria? Electability.

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Edwards Threads the Needle

Rolling Stone has a profile of John Edwards that highlights his strength in the states where it counts the most. They point out that he is the most progressive of all the candidates, yet in head to head match-ups against likely GOP nominees, he is also the most electable of the bunch. Edwards' Iowa operation, they say, is head and shoulders above any other, and even Carville admits that Edwards may well win in Iowa. Should he then go on to win New Hampshire, he'd be virtually unstoppable. Here's the profile.

And, here is a good analysis of Iowa polling that shows why both Clinton and Obama are taking Edwards very, very seriously.

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I'm Going to Iowa

Tomorrow, John Edwards will launch a 7-day 31-county "Fighting for One America" bus tour through the key "early" state of Iowa. Toward the end of this week, I'll be getting on a plane to Des Moines to help with some canvassing, phonebanking and whatever else needs to be done. Edwards has a state-of -the-art grassroots organization in Iowa, so this should be fun! Check back here next weekend for this Georgian's view of the race in Iowa.

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Christmas Caucus?

With South Carolina and Florida Republicans jockeying for "first Southern Primary" status, Democrats, too, will have some decisions to make. If the South Carolina primary is moved back to Jan. 19th as proposed here, then New Hampshire could be as early as January 15th. To avoid the holiday rush, that could push the Iowa caucuses to pre-holiday season in December of 2007. Okay, I was willing to spend January in Iowa, but adding a presidential primary to my December calendar is a bit much.

Tell you what. Let's just all vote now and call it a day. This has gotten beyond ridiculous. Florida and South Carolina seem determined to fight this out despite promises of sanctions (at least for Florida) from the RNC and the DNC.

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Edwards on Top in Iowa

John Edwards has again emerged as the leader in Iowa, a position he has occupied consistently all year. In May, Hillary Clinton briefly edged Edwards out of the lead in this important, early state, but in a poll published today, Edwards has regained the lead, while Clinton and Obama have slipped. On the Republican side, Romney is in the lead.

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