Breaking: Edwards Grabs Iowa Lead

From Insider Advantage, a new poll shows that John Edwards has grabbed the lead in Iowa. Though the race remains very close, Edwards also has a significant lead among second choice voters-including significantly leading Hillary Clinton among female second choice voters.

Edward is peaking at the right time. Read more from Tom Baxter and Southern Political Report.

Edwards takes lead in InsiderAdvantage Iowa poll

Sphere: Related Content

Edwards Within Striking Distance: Mike Miller

Things are heating up in Iowa! Guest post from Mike Miller:

Go, John, go!!! In the past two weeks, two highly respected polls (Zogby last week and now CBS/NY Times) have reported that Clinton's support is declining in Iowa and Edwards is steadily improving his numbers. According to the highly respected CBS/New York Times Iowa poll released yesterday, Clinton's lead in Iowa has all but evaporated in the past couple of weeks and John Edwards is in striking distance of the lead!

In fact, he may already be in the lead - Clinton's lead over Edwards is now well-within the statistical margin of error!

Here are the numbers:
Clinton 25%
Edwards 23%
Obama 22%

And a whopping 33% of her supporters reported that they "liked her with reservations."

Edwards's "favorables" with his supporters were also stronger than Clinton's were with hers. 71% of Edwards supporters reported that they "strongly favor" him. Only 66% of Clinton supporters reported that they "strongly favor" her.

Experience clearly divides the candidates: 8 in 10 say Clinton is "prepared for being president," 68% said Edwards is prepared for the job, but just over half think that Obama has not. However, Clinton is viewed by many likely caucus-goers as pandering and dishonest: 47% think Clinton says what she believes, but 48% think she only says what she thinks people want to hear. The CBS/NY Times poll notes that "Of the top three candidates, only Edwards is viewed as both being prepared for the job of President and as someone who says what he believes."

Overall, Edwards tops all candidates with the highest "favorable rating," with 73% of likely caucus-goers reporting that they view Edwards favorably. Also, the Clinton complaint that she's being unfairly attacked has gotten little traction, as 25% say she is not being attacked and 34% say that she is being attacked fairly.

I have previously reported on the importance of "second-choice" votes on caucus night. You will recall that candidates need at least 15% in a local caucus to be eligible for delegates. Supporters of candidates who do not receive 15% will then have the opportunity to support one of the remaining candidates. According to this poll, only Edwards, Clinton and Obama meet the 15% threshold. As I have oft stated, the "second choice" votes are critical to victory. Edwards is the winner there. Among likely caucus-goers who identify themselves as either Richardson, Bidden, Dodd, Kucinich or Gravel supporters, 30% chose Edwards as their second choice, 27% chose Obama as their second choice, and only 14% chose Clinton as their second choice.

Stay tuned. And don't miss the CNN debate tomorrow night - it's getting hot in Iowa.

Sphere: Related Content

Is it Over? NH Poll

MyDD's Devastating Zogby NH Poll Released Today is a must read. Just remember, things are not always as they appear-especially in presidential primary politics. Here's a tease. Read the WHOLE post:

Ok, I think I'm about ready to give up. My candidate has dropped to 17%. John Edwards is at 6%:
A new Zogby poll released today, October 24th, of 500 likely voters in the Democratic primary in New Hampshire shows a remarkable lead developing for the frontrunner, who not only currently leads by 23 points --- but careful study of the tabs shows a lead not only in every demographic group but among Independents as well as Democrats.
I think it's about time that we realized that this primary is essentially over. None of the other candidates have managed to gain any momentum. Critical demographic groups are all breaking one way. Endorsement after endorsement is falling into place. Maybe it just isn't worth our energy anymore.
I mean, there are a lot of other races that we could be concentrating our efforts on. The Virginia state senate races that Jerome blogged about for example.
As John Zogby notes in his analysis,
This is stunning. [The frontrunner] leads 43-20 among Democrats and 35 to 11 among Independents. He hits 40 among all age groups, union and non-union voters. His lead is 57-17 among self-described progressives, 50-20 among liberals, and 34-14 among moderates. Married voters give him a 38-13 edge and singles a 45-21 point lead. He holds huge leads among all education groups, among investors and non-investors, men and women. This qualifies as juggernaut status. Can he be stopped?

Sphere: Related Content

The Naked Yoga, Sex in Cars Poll

Yes, you read that right. I really don't know what's stranger-that these were questions in a phone poll I got tonight or that I actually answered-some of them.

Here's the deal. The phone rang about 8 pm, and an automated voice asked me to take a poll the results of which would be announced on national television. Okay, at this point, I'm thinking, "the MSNBC debate is tomorrow night, and this might be about the presidential, so let me stay on the phone long enough to give Edwards a bump."

After the standard demographic information, including political party, these questions were threaded in between questions about "right direction" or "wrong direction", Iran and the death penalty:

#1: "Have you ever been questioned by the FBI?"

#2: "If your neighbors were doing yoga in the nude in the backyard every morning, would you call the police or watch?

#3: "Have you ever had sex in a car."

They did not ask about sex in the Oval Office, cellphone conversations with madams while voting or solicitation of Congressional interns. And, no, there was no presidential preference asked.

Very strange indeed.

Sphere: Related Content

New Poll: Edwards Strongest Dem in Key States

How well I remember election day 2004. In the afternoon, we were elated as exit polls leaked indicating Kerry was well ahead in Ohio and Pennsylvania. Even Florida was within reach, or so we thought. I worked all day as a poll watcher in Bibb, and after the polls closed, Daryl and I headed toward Atlanta to watch the returns come in on the big screens with other dems. As the evening progressed, the early predictions fell apart, Ohio was colored red, we had lost another national election, and the three years that have followed have been worse than I imagined-and I knew it would be bad.

It was awful, and in November of 2008 I don't want a sequel. That's a key reason why John Edwards gets my support for President. While his policy proposals have been early and detailed, the truth is that all the leading Democrats are fairly close on policy. But, Edwards can win and has coattails in rural areas that help other Democrats-like Warner, Marshall and Barrow-win, too. For instance, a new SurveyUSA poll indicates that Edwards is the Democrat who is strongest in the critical swing state of Ohio. In 2004, a blue Ohio would've put John Kerry in the White House. Add states like Virginia to the blue team, and we just might acheive an electoral margin that would get everyone to bed-or to the party-by midnight.

Sphere: Related Content

You Might As Well Be Polling Canada

In political circles, when talk of national polls surfaces, a phrase commonly heard is "you might as well be polling Canada." That refers to the lack of application of those polls to the actual, state by state, primary process. Well, President Clinton, in defending his wife's electability issue, has taken it to a whole new level-siting actual polls of foreign countries. See the quote below from the Washington Post:

The former president observed that George W. Bush won the majority of counties in New York in 2000 (Al Gore still won the state as the most populous areas are heavily Democratic). But in 2006, when Hillary Clinton ran for reelection, she won the vast majority of the Bush counties.
The ex-president even noted a recent survey by a Canadian polling group called Angus Reid showing that more than 40 percent of residents in Germany, France and other European countries wanted to see Hillary Clinton elected president, putting her far-ahead of the other candidates. Clinton noted Americans like to make their own decisions, but argued this was a very important consideration because many countries have been frustrated by the policies of the Bush administration. "You want to fix America's standing in the world, elect Hillary," Clinton said.

Sphere: Related Content

Want to Win? Choose Edwards

There was more good news for the Edwards campaign today. Over the last two weeks, his bold approach to issues has gotten sharper, and even more bold as he takes on corporate politicians of both parties. He isn't singing this hymn alone. Every time Edwards starts a new verse Obama chimes in. Perhaps as a result, while Hillary Clinton continues to lead in national polls, her lead is softening as questions about her electability simmer.

At the same time, according to Rasmussen, Edwards, who has consistently been the most electable Democrat, continues to do better than all other Democrats in general election match-ups. He has solid leads over both New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani 49% to 41% and former Senator Fred Thompson, who he dominates 49% to 35%. He also leads Romney and McCain.

Democrats are in the unique position of having the opportunity to nominate John Edwards, the candidate who is (1) the most progressive and (2) the most electable. How can we not?

Sphere: Related Content

The Constitution: Approval Rating is at 63%

Quick, someone get a media advisor and a hair stylist for the Constitution. Those approval ratings are slipping.

Rasmussen Reports notes that 63% of Americans polled rate the Constitution as "good" or "excellent." You know what that means. 37% thought the document was "fair" or "poor." While 72% of self-identified conservatives gave the document a "good" or "excellent" rating, only 52% of liberals did the same. (Note to the liberals: give the Constitution a break. At least five of the members of the current Supreme Court are reading an abridged version of the document.)

Sphere: Related Content

New Poll: Who Won Tonight's Debate?

Opinion Polls & Market Research

Sphere: Related Content

New Poll: Edwards Leads Both McCain and Romney

A brand new Rasmussen Poll is good news for John Edwards. The survey of 800 likely voters, conducted March 26-27, showed:

Survey of 800 Likely Voters
March 26-27, 2007

John Edwards (D) vs. John McCain (R)
John Edwards (D) 47%
John McCain (R) 38%

John Edwards (D) vs. Mitt Romney (R)
John Edwards (D) 55%
Mitt Romney (R) 29%

In addition, among those surveyed, Edwards enjoys high favorability. Rasmussen says:

Senator Edwards is now viewed favorably by 57% of voters, including 53% of men, 61% of women. Thirty-five percent (35%) have an unfavorable opinion.

That's also the best showing for Edwards so far. Like other top-tier Democratic candidates, the Senator's unfavorable rating had lately been almost as high as his favorable rating. In mid-March he averaged 47% favorable, 45% unfavorable in our surveys (with the same ten-point discrepancy between men and women).

Last week, Edwards also had a strong showing in a Georgia Insider Advantage Poll. He and Hillary Clinton were the top two choices of those surveyed, with Edwards only four points behind Clinton, and within the margin of error for the poll.

This is cross-posted at Georgia Votes Edwards.

Sphere: Related Content