Dear "Stupid Delegate"

I should probably leave this alone, but, frankly, I've had about enough. Dear "Stupid Delegate" (that's not a spelling error) was how an email began that was received today by a delegate-friend and supporter of Sen. Obama. That's just a mild taste of the kinds of emails "super" or "automatic" delegates have been getting. Never mind Clinton's gracious concession last Saturday, the site that makes it easy to mass email all delegates, Lobbydelegates.com is up and running strong. One of my friends is keeping copies of all the email she gets-she is certain that no one will believe how nasty people were unless she has the proof.

And, Clinton supporters are not alone in the bomb-throwing.

Earlier this week, I was on the receiving end of a mass email with the following subject line: "Your Whiteness is Showing: An Open Letter to Certain White Women." That email was directed to "white" women who were threatening to withhold support from Sen. Obama. Needless to say, it was not generated by the Obama campaign. Never mind that I've endorsed Obama, given to Obama, ran to be a delegate for Obama etc. I still had the pleasure of receiving that email.

Look, there are a lot of feelings floating around about the primary, and folks need to vent. I get that, but this is not the way to do it, and I've begun to respond directly to people who send me this garbage. I'm hoping that they will begin to understand that when they send out mass emails, real people, who have feelings, read it. Actually, it's worked pretty well, and I had fairly productive email exchanges with both of the women who sent the referenced emails. I hope that you will do the same. Instead of just pressing the delete key, send back a note that challenges this kind of behavior. While it might be easier to just ignore it, it's important that folks get the message that this is no way to treat each other.

I think it's pretty darn easy to vent anger at a group of relatively unknown faces who are "super" or "automatic" delegates. It's hard to remember that actual, living, breathing human beings with families and feelings are on the receiving end of these awful emails. We need to speak up. There a way to express opinions without using each other as punching bags.

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Snookered?

Talk about gavel to gavel coverage. At least three networks: CNN, MSNBC and CSPAN carried full coverage of the DNC Rules Committee meeting today. So, as the nation watched us make some pretty fine sausage, the committee voted to seat the full delegations from both Florida and Michigan; however, delegates from both states, including "superdelegates" will have half a vote. Michigan's pledged delegates, where most candidates, including Obama, withdrew their names from the ballot out of respect for the rules, were allocated 69/59, or 29.5 delegate votes for Obama and 34.5 for Clinton. There is also some indication that there was a separate understanding that the two delegates appointed by the Michigan chair would be Obama delegates. The Obama campaign made major concessions to allow this compromise to occur. With the support of the Obama campaign and the Rules Committee, the State Parties from Florida and Michigan got essentially what they wanted. But, were they all snookered by the Clinton campaign?

Just when I thought that Democrats might be headed to a campfire, some s'mores and a few verses of Kum Ba Yah, Harold Ickes turned on his mic and made two things clear: while Hillary Clinton accepts the ruling on Florida, she does not accept the decision on Michigan. Ickes delivered a passionate speech that I suspect contains some of her talking points for the next days, and unfortunately, perhaps weeks. How could the committee of 30 substitute their judgement for the will of 600,000 Michigan voters? How could the committee essentially steal four delegates from Clinton and hand Obama delegates that he did not earn? Ickes ended with a message from Clinton herself: he held open the possibility that she would take the fight over Michigan to the Credentials Committee.

Short of seating the entire delegations with full votes, and giving Obama nothing out of Michigan-a fairytale that was never going to happen-I think that Clinton may have gotten exactly what she wanted out of today. She got some additional delegates, and she gets to continue this fight, if she chooses, arguing that the committee's action was not fair to her-or the the voters of Michigan. Now, I think that argument is poppycock. As Obama campaign manager David Plouffe told The Associated Press, "I don't think is a position that people find terribly reasonable."

Here's the math according the MSNBC:

The resolution increased the number of delegates needed to clinch the nomination to 2,118, leaving Obama 66 delegates short but still within striking distance after the three final primaries are held in the next three days. Obama picked up a total of 32 delegates in Michigan, including superdelegates who have already committed, and 36 in Florida. Clinton picked up 38 in Michigan, including superdelegates, and 56.5 in Florida. Obama's total increased to 2,052, and Clinton had 1,877.5, according to The Associated Press calculations.

Clinton's disagreement with the decision about Michigan leaves little chance that Obama will be able to claim victory next week with her blessing. The only questions that remains are(1) will he do it anyway (I think so), (2) how far will Clinton take her fight, and what will the consequence be for her own political future? and (3) will there be blood on the floor at the end of this, and if so, whose will it be?

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Two More Pieces of Bad News for Clinton

Obama continues to close the "Super" delegate gap. CNN now has him just two delegates behind Clinton, while ABC News declared yesterday that he had surpassed her. Now, Rasmussen Reports says that they will stop polling Clinton "in the near future" in order to focus on McCain-Obama. While that last piece of news may not seem like a big deal, I remember how deflating it was to me, as an Edwards supporter, when Gallup dropped Edwards from it's national tracking. As a supporter, it was definitely a gut-check moment.

Clinton will win West Virgina handily on Tuesday, and she will also win Kentucky. It does not matter. Every available mertic, objective and subjective, points to Obama. Unless a really big rock falls on him, this race is over. I respect her right to stay in as long as she wishes, but this is like watching a terminal patient slowly die. The systems that support the life her her campaign-donors, delegates, press, polling, etc.-all seem to be slowly shutting down. It's sad to watch, and I wonder, when it's over, will this indebted campaign look to Democrats (read: Obama) to pay the bill for the prolonged life support?

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North Carolina Delivers for Obama

Tonight was a game-changer for Democrats, but not the one Clinton hoped for. The My birth state delivered for Obama tonight, in a big way, though my home county, Rutherford, voted for Clinton by 61%, and as I sit here, Indiana is "too close to call."

Who knew.

Most thought the Democratic Primary contest would drag on into the summer. Now, no matter who wins Indiana, Obama's nomination appears inevitable, and the steep hill Clinton had to climb just became Mt. Everest. Now, it becomes increasingly difficult for Clinton to make the case to delegates that she should be the nominee. It will become increasingly difficult for her to raise money. I'm betting that the super delegates trickle to Obama will become a flood over the next few weeks. And, as he did in his speech tonight, Obama will increasingly begin to reach out to Clinton, heal the party, and run against John McCain.

And, by the way, once he's President, will blogger's spell check stop thinking "Obama" is a misspelled word?

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Pennsylvania Prediction

I think Clinton will win tonight, by double digits. I say 12 points.

Update:

Or maybe not. Here are some early exits from National Review. They have Obama up by 5 and winning the blue collar vote.

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The Obama Cash Machine

CNN reports that Barack Obama has raised $41 million in March, more than twice Clinton's haul, leaving him with $51 million cash on hand and (this is impressive) $42.5 million that can be spent on the primaries. Clinton, on the other hand reports 10 million in debt, and of her $32 million cash on hand, only about $9 million available for primary spending.

Look, I feel a little silly writing words like "just" before amounts like $9 million, but this cash difference in the campaigns has reached a point of critical mass. Whoever is the nominee is going to have rely on their primary money until the convention, even if the other party drops out of the race. No candidate for president has ever demonstrated the ability to raise the kind of money-from such a broad base-as Sen. Obama has done. It really is remarkable.

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Blogger "Ethics"

So, let me get this right, a blogger paid to get into an Obama fundraiser and then surreptitiously audio taped Sen. Obama's remarks and posted them on a website. Okay, look, whether you're a candidate for City Council or for President, you have to realize that potentially-maybe probably-all of your statements are public statements, and you need to mind your words. That said, political fundraisers are almost always closed to the press. When a blogger pays to get in a closed-press event and then tapes the comments-there's just a little something Enquirer-esque, as in, I need to bathe after I shake your hand, about that.

Most of the people I know who blog are also otherwise involved politically. They don't write everything they know because, if they did, they would not be trusted with confidential information in their other political involvements. I don't write about conversations I have with elected officials, party folks or candidates unless they agree. I don't write about the confidential work of various boards and committees I serve on. And, I certainly don't write about the internal, strategic plans of candidates. I sure don't sneak into fundraisers for Presidential candidates and secretly record and then publish their comments.

Like any charismatic movement, blogging emerged initially without a lot of formal written "codes" of behavior, or ethics, if you will. The community sort of policed itself. Sort of. And, part of the attraction to blogging is the freedom and immediacy of the medium. But, I suspect that as time goes on and this "blogging" phenomenon sorts itself out more formal codes of ethics will emerge. For example, when bloggers more often get sued for making inaccurate statements about people, there will be natural pressure for standards with regard to fairness and accuracy. In the meantime, we'll have to rely on good faith and good sense, though both seem at times to be in short supply.

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Hillary's Nonsequeter

So, the DNC shouldn't disenfranchise voters, but it's fine for super delegates, or even elected delegates, to ignore the will of the voters thereby disenfranchising them. That seems to be Hillary's argument these days. Clinton thinks that the right thing to do is to seat the Florida and Michigan delegates so that the millions of voters in those states will not be disenfranchised, but at the same time argues that it is fine for delegates-elected or super-to disenfranchise the voters by ignoring how they voted. What kind of pretzel logic is that? If this makes sense to you, please explain it to me.

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Taking the Democracy out of the Democratic Party

Check out this story on CNN. If Hillary Clinton stays in this race, she's doing a little more than hinting that she will go after delegates pledged to Obama. It's hard to hear this without also hearing "to hell with the voters" echoing in the background. For the second time this week, Sen. Clinton has made the point that most "so-called pledged delegates" are actually up for grabs. Yes, indeed, almost all delegates really function like "super delegates"-free agents, free to ignore the will of the voters. This race has become destructive for the party, and perhaps for the country. There is nothing more destructive than seeking to take the "democracy" out of the Democratic Party. I hope she will re-think this approach.

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Rush Encouraging Republicans to Vote for Clinton?

Hell must be freezing over. Rush Limbaugh and Company are encouraging Republicans to vote for Hillary Clinton. I don't swallow poison, I don't listen to right wing talk radio, and I don't watch FOX News. So, imagine my surprise when I read that Rush and Company were encouraging Republicans to participate in the Democratic primaries in upcoming states and to vote for Sen. Clinton. Why? Because they want to prolong the "Democratic blood-letting" for as long as possible, and because they would rather run against Clinton than Obama. Apparently, this effort began before the Mississippi primary, and as a result some estimate that Clinton garnered more than 40,000 Republican votes. Read all about it, right here.

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Obama Delievers Historic Speech on Race

I believe Obama just sewed up the nomination.

My sister is my political barometer. She's a SC democrat, but she doesn't drink quite as much Koolaide as I do. So, I listen to her, in part, to figure out how "normal" people are reacting to whatever is going on in the political world. She supported Edwards and now supports Obama, but last week, on one of my particularly busy days, she called me and said, "You better tell Obama to 'do something' about that pastor because I've got to tell you, I can't vote for him if that's who's going to be advising him when he's sitting in the Oval office, making decisions about war and peace." (Sometimes I think she pictures a red phone on my desk that speed dials Obama's cellphone.) That's when I knew the pastor/church story was going to have some serious legs. But today, my sister called again. She had just heard Obama's speech on race, and she said, "I believe this speech will go down in history as one of the great speeches ever given on race in this country. There should be no doubt in anyone's mind after listening that this man can and should be the next President." I then listened to what I do think is an historic speech and encourage you to do the same. I agree with her. How can this man not become President?

The video is below, and here's the full transcript courtesy of MSNBC.

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Ferraro Out of Bounds

Clinton's surrogates aren't helping her much today. If these comments by Ferraro (one of Clinton's top advisers and most successful fundraisers) are reported accurately, then Clinton best not keep quiet. The level of discourse in this race has dipped to an embarrassing level. Both candidates need to get a handle on their spokespeople. Keep this up, and a once-energized electorate will stay home rather than voting in November.

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I Hate Math

But I bet Sen. Clinton hates it more right about now. I know there's this narrative out there about Clinton's comeback last Tuesday-you know, how she now has the wind in her sails. I thought so, too. At first. Now, I think, not so much.

Her three victories were impressive, but it turns out not to have helped her much in the all-important delegate count, where Obama still leads by more than 100 delegates. She didn't cut much into Obama's lead (about 20 delegates), and the ground she did make up is looking more like quicksand and could disappear entirely by the time the votes are counted in the Texas caucus and the Mississippi primary. And, remember, there were no surprises on Tuesday-two weeks out she was polling well ahead of her final numbers in all three contests.

Based on the CNN totals, Clinton seems to have netted a total of 20 delegates on Tuesday. Then, in Wyoming, Obama netted 5. That leaves Clinton netting 15 delegates total in the last week, and that's if you don't count the two super delegates who declared for Obama last week, plus the brand new congressman and brand new Illinois super delegate who was elected last week. That drops her net gain to 12.

Add to that the fact that Texas caucuses are still being counted, and Obama is ahead. When that counting is done, he may well have erased her seven delegate lead in Texas, or even passed her. But let's say he only cuts her lead in Texas by three. That reduces her net gain for last week to 9 delegates, and leaves me saying, "So, what's the big deal?"

The Mississippi primary is Tuesday, and Obama is favored. If he wins, he may completely erase any delegate ground she gained last Tuesday. As I watched the Sunday shows today, I heard Clinton surrogates argue: 1) that Florida and Michigan should be allowed to seat their delegations; 2) that big states are more important than other states; 3) that swing states and blue states are more significant than "red" states; 4) that it is the role of super delegates to supersede the will of the voters if in their super-wisdom they think it's the super-right thing to do; 5) "Caucuses are undemocratic." Funny, I don't remember her talking about undemocratic caucuses in Iowa. In fact, this was her campaign's statement when she signed the four state pledge in September of 2007:

Sep 1, 2007 4:02 PM Clinton Campaign Statement

The following is a statement by Clinton Campaign Manager Patti Solis Doyle.
"We believe Iowa, New Hampshire, Nevada and South Carolina play a unique and special role in the nominating process. And we believe the DNC’s rules and its calendar provide the necessary structure to respect and honor that role.
Thus, we will be signing the pledge to adhere to the DNC approved nominating calendar."

Changed our mind, have we?

But, it's really not about math, is it? It's about the integrity of the process and the will of the voters. The integrity of the process means following the rules and making sure the will of the voters is reflected in the choice of nominee. There may be a way to give voters in Florida and Michigan a chance to vote again, but as Howard Dean said today, the measure of success will be whether the loser feels the process was fair. That, my friends, is going to be a tough row to hoe.

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Double Standard

So, let me get this straight. Howard Wolfson, the paid spokesman for Hillary Clinton, makes a purposeful statement to the press comparing Obama to Ken Starr, and that's supposed to be okay, but Obama's volunteer economic advisor compares Clinton to a monster, and that's out of bounds. I don't know about you, but I thought Ken Starr was a monster. The truth is that both comments were out of line and offered absolutely nothing that elevated the debate in this very important election. If Obama's advisor has been on staff, she should have been fired, but she was a volunteer and has resigned. Where's Howard Wolfson's resignation?

Don't get me wrong, I'd like nothing more than for Obama and Clinton to put the gloves back on and refuse to attack each other-that's what would be in the best interest of the Party and the Country, but spare me the double standard.

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Will They Get Clinton's Goat?

Though the Kenyan elders may not agree with me, this is about the funniest thing I have read this week. It appears that Kenyan elders are offended, blame Sen. Clinton and may impost a fine of goats, cattle or camels over Photogate. Here's an portion of the article from Reuters Africa:

Wajir elders resolved to file an official complaint with the U.S. Embassy in Nairobi, dropping earlier plans to hold a protest after Friday prayers. They said they would also convene a traditional Somali court to investigate the matter. It can impose fines that are payable in cattle, goats or camels."We will go ahead with this case whether Senator Clinton or Democratic party leaders turn up or not," said Mohamed Ibrahim, a member of the clan that hosted Obama during his trip. "But this whole thing can be avoided if only an apology is made."

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WSJ: Clinton Aide Compares Obama to Jackson

Sound familiar? Again, did the Clinton campaign learn nothing in SC?

By the way, I understand that after their initial non-denial, the Clinton campaign has now officially denied their staff having released this photograph of Obama. Good. I hope that's true because if Clinton's staff had anything to do with the boneheaded decision to circulate the photograph, I suspect it will be discovered.

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Clinton Has Crossed the Line

Sen. Hillary Clinton's campaign has crossed the line. Over the weekend Clinton moved from anger to sarcasm, and then today, her campaign is apparently behind the circulation of a photograph of Obama in traditional Somali dress. (They have issued a carefully worded non-denial.) The implication is crystal clear-this is a simple segue to the fake email asserting that Obama has Muslim ties that was circulated by soon-to-be ex-Clinton staffers in Iowa. I wonder who's going to take the fall for these tactics this time? I vote for Mark Penn. At least when she was angry she was addressing an issue. This specious personal, ethnocentric attack is beneath her. I guess when you plan to behave like Rove, you begin by accusing the other candidate of behaving like Rove. Enough already. Did her team learn nothing in SC?

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BREAKING: Official Delegate Numbers for Georgia

It wasn't easy, but the Democratic Party of Georgia has calcualted and now released the following information regarding delegate allocation for Sen. Barack Obama and Sen. Hillary Clinton. The Georgia Secretary of State does not calculate election results in presidential primaries by congressional district, which is how the Democratic delegates are calculated, so the Party had to essentially go precinct by precinct to add up the results and determine the delegate allocation. And, in some instances (like the 2nd Congressional District) the math is so close that the numbers are being re-calculated. Also, I don't think these congressional district totals include alternates, delegates who are elected and travel with the delegation but do not get to vote unless a delegate cannot serve.

Here are the totals as released by the DPG:


Statewide At-large Delegates
Obama: 13
Clinton: 6

Statewide Pledged Party Leaders/Elected Officials
Obama: 7
Clinton: 4

Congressional District 1
Obama: 2
Clinton: 1

Congressional District 2*
Obama: 3
Clinton: 2

Congressional District 3
Obama: 3
Clinton: 1

Congressional District 4
Obama: 5
Clinton: 1

Congressional District 5
Obama: 5
Clinton: 2

Congressional District 6
Obama: 2
Clinton: 1

Congressional District 7
Obama: 3
Clinton: 1

Congressional District 8
Obama: 3
Clinton: 1

Congressional District 9
Obama: 1
Clinton: 2

Congressional District 10
Obama: 2
Clinton: 2

Congressional District 11
Obama: 2
Clinton: 1

Congressional District 12
Obama: 4
Clinton: 1

Congressional District 13
Obama: 5
Clinton: 1

TOTAL:
Obama:60
Clinton: 27

Georgia also has 13 unpledged "superdelegates" and two unpledged add-on delegates. The delegates from each congressional district will be elected at caucuses held in each congressional district on April 19, 2008. The district caucuses are open to the public, and any Democrat can run for a delegate position or vote in the caucus.

Georgia's 19 at-large delegates and 11 statewide pledged party leader and elected official delegates will be elected by the Democratic Party of Georgia's state committee at a meeting to be held in late spring.

*Delegate counts for the Second Congressional District are preliminary, until a vote-by-vote review is completed.

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A Hundred Versus a Million

I suspect this might come up in the debate tonight. MSNBC is reporting that supporters of Sen. Clinton have formed a 527 and are seeking a hundred wealthy donors to contribute $100k each to fund ten million in advertising in March 4th states. On the other hand, Sen. Obama's campaign reported yesterday that they are closing on on a million individual donors, an unprecedented number. Me, I'd rather be part of an army of a million that an elite group of a hundred.

By making a contribution to Sen. Obama today, you can help make history and send a message that the keys to the White House belong to the people of this country, not to a few wealthy elite. Click here to make your contribution. And, don't forget to watch the debate tonight on CNN at 8 pm.

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Don't They Get Cable TV in Wisconsin?

Because, based on my last count, Democratic presidential candidates have debated 18 times during this contest, and there is yet another debate scheduled for Texas. Nonetheless, Hillary Clinton has apparently gone up on air with a negative ad in Wisconsin, smacking Obama for declining to participate in yet another debate there. These are national debates. It's not like the policy positions shift depending on the state. Well, not much anyway, and I'm pretty sure they get cable in Wisconsin.

This is a classic campaign strategy, but usually reserved for a candidate who has ground to make up. Challenge your opponent to debate, and if they decline, turn it into a negative ad. Only, here, when there have already been 18 debates, it's a little hard to swallow. Clinton may well end up as the nominee, but right now, on the heels of eight straight losses, the resignation of her campaign manager and her deputy campaign manager and the reports of financial woes (woes that won't be helped by last night's results), going up on air with this negative ad just makes her look weak.

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