Saturday, June 03, 2006

New Poll: Did Taylor Overplay His Hand?

For the last two weeks, the Taylor campaign has been claiming a "21 point lead" based on a poll conducted by Alan Secrest and paid for by the Taylor campaign. Today, an Insider Advantage/Majority Opinion Pol, conducted for Southern Political Report shows Taylor with a lead of only seven points, with margin of error of +/- 5 points. On the surface, it appears that the first numbers reflected Taylor's unanswered early ad buy, and that once Cox went up on the air, his support began to soften. I also noticed today that the earlier poll is no longer on the front page of the Taylor website.

The best news for the Cox campaign is the large number of undecided voters: 39%.
Female voters, who are expected to make up as much as 60% of the voters in the democratic primary, are trending toward Cox by a ten point margin. African American voters are trending toward Taylor by sixteen points. I wonder what the break-out is for African American women?

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15 comments:

justin said...

Not only that these numbers come after weeks of attacks from the Taylor camp. Mark and the GOP tried to label Cathy a flip-flopper; they tried to mislead voters into believing she's a racist. When she released her comprehensive plan to decrease our reliance on unstable Mideast oil and increase our standing as a leader in the agri-fuel industry, he whined that she doesn’t cram her campaign workers into a small car!

On top of that, they've already launched double the number of advertisements as Cathy and have been on the air for weeks longer.

It’s clear that the people of Georgia are excited about Cathy's campaign and the more they see and hear from her, the more they're supporting her drive to change Georgia's government!

Button Gwinnett said...

You really had to question the Taylor poll. And because the latest independent poll shows something completely different, you have to question the Taylor campaign's credibility. Not only has it been devoid of ideas about Georgia's current and future problems, but it also appears that Taylor is willing to say anything to win - true or not.

I agree with both campaigns. This is still a long way from being over.

Flower Child said...

The Taylor Campaign and The Cox Campaign have very nice adds. Mark playing with the Children and Cathy sitting on the Rocker on her Dad's Front Porch. Very touching!!!

The one thing that disturbes me most is that Ms. Cox has informed us that it is the Governor's Job to Educate Georgia's Future Citizens.

What has happened to the Parents?

Every new Governor we get develops an educational program that will cure the education woes of Georgia.

I have not seen a cure that works in my time in Georgia which commenced in 1971.

GetReal said...

Taylor overplaying his hand about polls? Spare me.

The Cox campaign has spent a year telling everyone she was over 50% in the primary and that Taylor should drop out of the race. Now you're stuck arguing that a poll (done by a guy who supports Cox) has her behind by seven and in the mid-twenties is good news.

Since most of the Cox campaign's message is "vote for me because people like me and I'm going to win," I guess going from 55% and way ahead (according to the Cox "polls") to 27% and behind means that creative arguments are called for.

Amy Morton said...

FC: Education is the issue that is most important to me, and I, too, tire of people who think that just because they get elected they are instant experts on education. Cathy's commercial is not long enough to reflect her whole education platform, and that document, available on her website, is detailed and stresses relying on proven methods to develop solutions. I have heard Cathy talk about the importance of partnership between parents and teachers. When she says "it's a governor's job", she's talking about making sure the opportunity exists. Yes, it's up to parents to make sure children take advantage of it, and those children whose parents fail to do that face a struggle. As my husband says: if we don't educate, we incarcerate.

Amy Morton said...

Get Real: Unless I missed something, there were no Perdue/Taylor or Perdue/Cox numbers in this poll, so I'm not sure where you are getting that Taylor is now favored against Perdue. I've seen no evidence of that. My question is what happened to the big lead Taylor claimed? Was it bogus or has it evaporated?

Sure, I'd love for Cathy to be up in every poll, but let's all remember, the last dem who was ahead in every poll was now private citizen Roy Barnes. I have always thought that this primary would be very close- that this is the race for Cathy. If democrats have the courage to nominate her, then she will be our next governor. Cathy can actually win in November. Mark? I doubt it.

Taylor Troll said...

The high number of undecideds in the Towery poll (if you believe it at all) make me wonder, just who are these people? Gallup thinks most undecideds in a race like this don't end up voting. So, 34-27 becomes 55-45. Clearly this poll is better for Cox than Taylor's, although that is the only measurement that makes this poll look good for her.

GetReal said...

Amy-

Apparently you missed this from the AJC Political Insider coverage of the Democratic Party's fundraising dinner in March of this year:

Cox claims big lead

Secretary of State Cathy Cox's campaign for governor is circulating a memo from her pollsters, Greenberg Quinlan Rosner Research, which has Cox up 20 points over her Democratic primary opponent, Lt. Gov. Mark Taylor, 56-36 percent.

The most eyebrow-raising claim is that Cox holds a 50-41 percent lead over Taylor among African-Americans, a group that has been strong for Taylor. According to the memo, Cox has widened her lead among African-American women to 56-34 percent.

The memo says the pollsters interviewed 811 likely Democratic primary voters between Feb. 22 and March 1.

As always, read polls conducted for a campaign at your own risk. (But admit it: You read them.)

Amy Morton said...

I do see that, but I am still looking for new Perdue/Taylor, Perdue/Cox numbers. This really comes down to that race. Does it really matter who we choose in July if they cannot beat Perdue in November?

Blake said...

That's my question. What evidence is there that either Taylor or Cox can knock off an incumbent governor in a resurgent Republican state?

I'm starting to feel as though the best candidate is the one who can inflict the most damage on Republicans, trying to lay the groundwork for 2008 and 2010.

Amy Morton said...

I really hope you're wrong. It's going to be an uphill climb for either candidate, but I do think that people are ready for a change and that most really are sick and tired of partisan politics.Democrats will decide in July whether or not we can be competitive in November. I hope that we choose the candidate who has the best shot at Sonny.

Taylor Troll said...

Head to head matchups at this point are meaningless. If I had to guess, Cox & Taylor would both be running about the same vs Perdue, and again, if I had to guess it would be about 50-40 for each one of them. Or maybe 48-33. Depends on the pollster's methodology.

Even if Cox is doing few points better, up to this point that has been about the entirety of her electability argument, I wouldnt put much stock in it. Here is the true test: who has shown they can come from behind in a race.

Answer, Mark Taylor. In 1998 he was not the favorite, he won the primary and the general big. In 2002, he had the Barnes baggage (namely pushing the flag through the Senate) and won. And this year, he's reversed a big deficit to Cox, who the media crowned a shoo-in.

If both candidates are down against Sonny, I don't particulary care who is 1,2 or even 5 points ahead even if it is Taylor at this point!. I care who can turn it around and run a great campaign. I don't think anyone can argue that Taylor isn't that candidate. He's proven it.

Amy Morton said...

Actually, the last numbers I saw on this had Cathy within six of Sonny and Mark had dropped back five points to put him 15 behind. Polls don't win races, but then again, Cathy Cox is a much stronger candidate than Mary Margaret was- no offense to MM.

GetReal said...

Amy-

Rather than argue back and forth about what polls mean what when, lets make a deal.

Based on your argument about Cox vs. Perdue and Taylor vs. Perdue, if a poll comes out that shows Taylor doing better against Perdue than Cox, you should switch your support to Taylor.

If that happens, will you do so? Or will the Cox campaign roll out another argument that contradicts a previous argument for her candidacy that is no longer true?

Button Gwinnett said...

If such a poll exists that shows Taylor has the better chance to beat Perdue, I've yet to see it.

This is from today's AJC Political Insider blog. The Republicans are pandering to the religious conservative vote by calling Cox "soft on gays."

This is the paragraph that speaks to what Republican polling reveals:

"First, by jumping into the primary fray, Republicans could be letting Democrats know that they have a general election argument that plays to one of their greatest strengths. In essence, they want to push Democratic voters into the arms of Mark Taylor, whom their polling says would be easier to beat."

http://www.ajc.com/metro/content/shared-blogs/ajc/politicalinsider/

The Republicans have been telling us this themselves for a long, long time now. This info. is consistent with what virtually every other poll that examined this has said, Republicans fear Cox more than Taylor.

When Cox supporters have made this assertion, it hasn't been for the sake of politically attacking Taylor. It's only been a matter of listening to what voters are telling us.

If our base (40% of the vote) stays true to us, we need a general election candidate that can attract an extra 5% or so of the vote to win the general election. Cox has the potential to do that, especially with women who voted for Perdue 4 years ago. Outside of his conservative Democratic base, Taylor just doesn't have that kind of appeal.

Again, it's not an attack. It's what we're being told time and time again.