He Won't Back Down

They've taken their best shots, and John Edwards is still standing. Clinton has spent nearly nearly $15 million. She's brought in democratic heavy hitters like Madeleine Albright and, of course, Bill Clinton. Obama, too, has spent millions more than Edwards and brought none other than Oprah Winfrey to the fight. Yesterday, the InsiderAdvantage poll put Edwards back on top, and within hours, the smears and lies began. But, they haven't been able to make Edwards go away. It must be terribly frustrating.

John Edwards has done the one thing that voters most admire: he has simply stayed the course. He has remained strong and consistent, and that makes it easy for voters to believe him when he tells them that he will fight for them. He has an extraordinary field team in Iowa, and now, the Clinton campaign is saying that their internal numbers are showing an Edwards surge. One has to ask why the Clinton campaign would put out a release like this one in the Washington Post, "Clinton Advisers Point to Edwards Threat." They point to it because they know that John Edwards is poised to surprise everyone but himself (and perhaps Elizabeth) on January 3rd.

And that leads to this question:

Has Hillary Clinton conceded Iowa? For the last three weeks, her campaign has vacillated between attacking Obama and Edwards and predicting her loss in Iowa. Even Bill Clinton said it would be a miracle if she wins Iowa. Fifteen million. Bill Clinton. Madeleine Albright. Tom Harkin. Miracle. Wow. The thing is, Register endorsement not withstanding (they have endorsed the winner of the Iowa caucus exactly never), she's been in a free fall that shows no sign of relenting. And, if you're really fighting for your life in Iowa and New Hampshire, why do you send your #1 surrogate-Bill Clinton-to Georgia and North Carolina to raise money no less? Isn't that, like, the thing she needs the least? It looks like she's conceding Iowa and now trying to build a firewall with the 2/5 states, and that may be not just her best, but her only viable strategy.

Here's her problem: Lots of undecideds will make their ultimate decision not on policy but on the person-on who they'd rather have over for dinner. It's hard to imagine that visceral vote going to Hillary Clinton. Either Edwards or Obama are much more likely to get those dinner invitations. And, she knows it.

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The Buzz: Which Candidates Win the "Likability" Battle?

When it comes down to brass tacks, people vote for the candidate they like.

Based on data gathered by Wonkosphere from political bloggers, both conservative and progressive bloggers find John Edwards to be the most likable democrat in the race for president. Among the republicans, the prize goes to Mike Huckabee who, like Edwards, topped the charts not just with conservative bloggers but with progressives as well.

It will come as a shock to many who spend time surfing the political blogsphere, but most Americans are just not tuned in to the presidential race and won't be until the bitter end. When they do tune in, about 80% of the time, they will make their choice with their gut, or so says Dr. Drew Westen, author of The Political Brain. What Westen refers to as "curb appeal" is hugely important, especially when it comes to attracting undecided and swing voters. You would think that democrats learned that lesson in 2004 when Bush won the presidency, not because he was the smarter candidate, not because he was a stronger leader, but because more people picked him as the guy they would rather have a beer with.

Here's what Kevin Dooley of Wonkosphere had to say about their research:

Amongst the leading Democratic candidates, John Edwards scored highest in
likability amongst liberal bloggers (96), followed closely by Barack Obama (88)
and Chris Dodd (88). Following Obama were Bill Richardson (73), Hillary Clinton
(58), Dennis Kucinich (31), Joe Biden (22), and Mike Gravel (8).
"There were also some interesting results concerning the cross-over buzz," said
Wonkosphere's Steve Corman. "Huckabee was the most-liked Republican to liberal bloggers (82), while they really have it in for Giuliani (14). Conversely, John
Edwards was the most liked Democrat to conservative bloggers, with likability
almost twice as high as all of the other Democrats."

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