Edwards Within Striking Distance: Mike Miller

Things are heating up in Iowa! Guest post from Mike Miller:

Go, John, go!!! In the past two weeks, two highly respected polls (Zogby last week and now CBS/NY Times) have reported that Clinton's support is declining in Iowa and Edwards is steadily improving his numbers. According to the highly respected CBS/New York Times Iowa poll released yesterday, Clinton's lead in Iowa has all but evaporated in the past couple of weeks and John Edwards is in striking distance of the lead!

In fact, he may already be in the lead - Clinton's lead over Edwards is now well-within the statistical margin of error!

Here are the numbers:
Clinton 25%
Edwards 23%
Obama 22%

And a whopping 33% of her supporters reported that they "liked her with reservations."

Edwards's "favorables" with his supporters were also stronger than Clinton's were with hers. 71% of Edwards supporters reported that they "strongly favor" him. Only 66% of Clinton supporters reported that they "strongly favor" her.

Experience clearly divides the candidates: 8 in 10 say Clinton is "prepared for being president," 68% said Edwards is prepared for the job, but just over half think that Obama has not. However, Clinton is viewed by many likely caucus-goers as pandering and dishonest: 47% think Clinton says what she believes, but 48% think she only says what she thinks people want to hear. The CBS/NY Times poll notes that "Of the top three candidates, only Edwards is viewed as both being prepared for the job of President and as someone who says what he believes."

Overall, Edwards tops all candidates with the highest "favorable rating," with 73% of likely caucus-goers reporting that they view Edwards favorably. Also, the Clinton complaint that she's being unfairly attacked has gotten little traction, as 25% say she is not being attacked and 34% say that she is being attacked fairly.

I have previously reported on the importance of "second-choice" votes on caucus night. You will recall that candidates need at least 15% in a local caucus to be eligible for delegates. Supporters of candidates who do not receive 15% will then have the opportunity to support one of the remaining candidates. According to this poll, only Edwards, Clinton and Obama meet the 15% threshold. As I have oft stated, the "second choice" votes are critical to victory. Edwards is the winner there. Among likely caucus-goers who identify themselves as either Richardson, Bidden, Dodd, Kucinich or Gravel supporters, 30% chose Edwards as their second choice, 27% chose Obama as their second choice, and only 14% chose Clinton as their second choice.

Stay tuned. And don't miss the CNN debate tomorrow night - it's getting hot in Iowa.

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Special Guest Post from Michael Miller

Since I'm in a New York frame of mind....
Volunteering on a presidential campaign has it's perks, and one of the best is getting to meet great, committed people from all over the country. I met Michael Miller, an attorney from New York City, and his lovely daughter Danielle when a group of us traveled to Iowa for John Edwards in August. It turns out that Michael is quite a good writer and often sends updates on the campaign from his NYC perspective. He's agreed to allow me to repost his reflections here. Here's today's post, followed by a brief, but impressive bio of Miller:

SPEAKING OF SWEET - WHAT A SWEET ENDORSEMENT by Michael Miller


Sen. John Edwards speaking to supporters after getting the endorsement of Caucus for Priorities, Friday, Nov. 9, 2007, in Des Moines, Iowa. (AP Photo/Charlie Neibergall) (Charlie Neibergall - AP)


Probably the sweetest endorsement yet, on Friday November 9, 2007 in Des Moines, Iowa, John Edwards received the endorsement of Caucus for Priorities, a 10,000-member strong grassroots organization of Iowa caucus-goers launched by Ben & Jerry's co-founder Ben Cohen. The group praised Edwards for his plans to root out wasteful Pentagon spending while investing in priorities like universal health care and education. Executive Director Peggy Huppert explained why the group chose Edwards over Senator Clinton: "She didn't answer any questions 'yes' or 'no,'" said Huppert. "She has a refusal to commit to anything."

Cohen, chairman of the Iowa organization and founder of the national Priorities Action Fund, joined Edwards at a news conference to announce his endorsement.
Cohen said nearly all of the Democratic candidates had courted support from the group. Members of the organization have become a fixture at campaign events, where they hand out brightly colored pens, frosted cookies and stickers, all featuring a pie chart that details Washington spending.

Peggy Huppert, Caucus for Priorities director, said that over the past two years the group's staff and volunteers attended 550 campaign events and asked more than 250 questions of the candidates.

"Now we plan to turn our persuasion and education efforts toward making caucus night a victory for John Edwards," she said. "10,000 caucus-goers can tip the scales in a tight contest."
Feel the love!

Brief Bio:

Michael Miller is a leading figure in the New York legal community, with a New York City law practice. Among his many activities, Mr. Miller has served as president of the New York County Lawyers’ Association, was a member of the American Bar Association (ABA)’s House of Delegates, and, is currently a member of the Executive Committee of the New York State Bar Association. Mr. Miller’s professional life is committed to public service and pro bono work, which includes diverse activities both locally and in the international arena. He has developed award-winning pro bono programs to assist children and families in distress in New York. He has served in very challenging circumstances as an Election Supervisor in war-torn Bosnia shortly after the Dayton Accords. Under the auspices of the Central and Eastern Europe Legal Initiative, Mr. Miller interviewed Kosovar refugees for evidence of war crimes, evidence which assisted the work of the International War Crimes Tribunal in the Hague.
Mr. Miller was also a leading figure in the legal relief effort in the aftermath of the 9/11 attacks. He personally interviewed, counseled and consoled numerous victims’ grieving family members and assisted with their legal needs – which included securing death certificates and entitlements to which issuance of a death certificate was an essential prerequisite. He supervised other volunteers, coordinated daily de-briefings with mental health professionals and helped refine the program to better serve the victims’ families.

Mr. Miller also developed an Adopt-A-Family Program to assist the families of firefighters, police officers and other uniformed service personnel who perished on September 11.

Among his many awards for this work, Mr. Miller received the ABA’s 2002 Pro Bono Award, a 2001 Pro Bono Award from the National Law Journal, and a 2002 Hero of the Profession Award from the Arizona Foundation for Legal Services and Education.

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